ABSTRACT
Clinical deterioration of COVID-19 patients is still a challenging event to predict in the emergency department (ED). The present study developed an artificial neural network using textual and tabular data from ED electronic medical reports. Predicted outcomes were 30-day mortality and ICU admission. Consecutive patients between February 20 and May 5, 2020, from Humanitas Research Hospital and San Raffaele Hospital, in the Milan area, were included. COVID-19 patients were 1296. Textual predictors were patient history, physical exam, and radiological reports. Tabular predictors were age, creatinine, C-reactive protein, hemoglobin, and platelet count. Tabular-textual model performance indices were compared to a model implementing only tabular data. For 30-day mortality, the combined model yielded slightly better performances than the tabular model, with AUC 0.84 ± 0.02, F-1 score 0.56 ± 0.04 and an MCC 0.44 ± 0.04. Tabular model performance was: AUC 0.84 ± 0.02, F-1 score 0.55 ± 0.03 and MCC 0.43 ± 0.04. As for ICU admission, the combined model was not superior to the tabular one. The present data points to the effectiveness of a textual and tabular model for COVID-19 prognosis prediction. Also, it may support the ED physician in their decision-making process.